A Comprehensive Blockchain-Based Risk Management Model for Construction Project Portfolios
Keywords:
Risk Management, Project Portfolio, Blockchain Technology, Construction ProjectsAbstract
This study aimed to develop and validate a comprehensive blockchain-based risk management model for construction project portfolios. This applied study used a descriptive field design and a mixed qualitative–quantitative approach. In the qualitative phase, data were collected through in-depth interviews with 25 experts familiar with project portfolio risk management and blockchain technology, selected based on theoretical saturation. The qualitative data were analyzed using thematic analysis to identify the main dimensions and subcomponents of the proposed model. In the quantitative phase, the statistical population consisted of construction project managers, from whom 267 participants were selected through simple random sampling based on Cochran’s formula. Data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire. Content validity was confirmed by expert judgment, and reliability was verified using Cronbach’s alpha. Quantitative data were analyzed through exploratory factor analysis, structural equation modeling, and PLS software. Exploratory factor analysis identified 37 subcomponents classified into five main dimensions: human resource risk, technical risk, financial risk, strategic risk, and resource risk. These five factors explained 90.33% of the total variance. Cronbach’s alpha, composite reliability, rho_A, and average variance extracted exceeded the recommended thresholds for all constructs, confirming internal consistency and convergent validity. The HTMT values were below one, indicating acceptable discriminant validity. The path coefficients for human resource risk, technical risk, financial risk, strategic risk, and resource risk were 0.405, 0.233, 0.544, 0.234, and 0.449, respectively, and all paths were statistically significant. The coefficient of determination was 0.760, indicating that the identified components explained 76% of the variance in the blockchain-based risk management model. The redundancy index was 0.566, and the GOF value was 0.65, demonstrating strong overall model fit. Additional fit indices, including X²/df = 1.34, RMSEA = 0.03, GFI = 0.94, AGFI = 0.91, CFI = 0.95, IFI = 0.93, NFI = 0.92, and NNFI = 0.96, confirmed the adequacy of the model. The findings indicate that blockchain technology can provide an effective foundation for construction project portfolio risk management by improving transparency, traceability, information reliability, resource integration, and the control of human, technical, financial, strategic, and resource-related risks.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Seyed Rasoul Mohammadi (Author); Mohammad Sediq Sabeti ; Adel Fatemi (Author)
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