Identification of the effective drivers on the the future of the marine tourism market (Case study: Southern coasts of Iran)

Abstract

The proximity of the southern provinces of the country to the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, along with their extensive coastlines, indicates the significant potential of the country in marine tourism. Therefore, national and regional policy formulation should pay special attention to these southern provinces to leverage their latent potential in marine tourism and pave the way for their economic development. This study aims to identify the drivers affecting the future of the marine tourism market on the southern coasts of Iran. This research is applied in terms of its objective and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection. It is exploratory with a quantitative-qualitative approach. Information was gathered using library research, field studies, and techniques based on environmental scanning and Delphi method. Through a review of the literature and analysis of upstream documents, initial drivers were identified and provided to experts. A total of 48 drivers were identified and finalized. Subsequently, a questionnaire in the form of a cross-impact analysis matrix based on scoring from 0 to 3 was designed to examine the influence and interdependence of these drivers. This questionnaire was then provided to experts to serve as input for the MICMAC software. Data were analyzed, and direct and indirect effects of the indices were assessed. Subsequently, ten key drivers were selected: private and public investment, marketing programs, advertising and information dissemination, infrastructure, budget and credits, inter-organizational cooperation, quality of facilities and services, establishment of social security, social platforms, beach beautification and organization, and holding festivals.